The Block: Binance’s $6.3B Hack, ETF Outflows And A Fed That Won’t Rule Out More Hikes

THE BLOCK

Orange Brick Road Crypto Newsletter | 3 November 2026

Binance’s $6.3B Hack, ETF Outflows and a Fed That Won’t Rule Out More Hikes

Your guide to the crypto markets, the cycle and what’s ahead. Prices are a snapshot from 1–2 November and move constantly.

Market snapshot Price (approx.) Vs last week’s edition Bitcoin ~$77,900–78,500 about 4% lower Ethereum ~$2,270–2,300 about 5% lower XRP ~$1.25 Solana ~$96 BNB ~$706

Bitcoin dipped to a six-week low near $76,100 after the Binance hack, then recovered toward $78K. It remains about 38% below its 6 October 2025 high of roughly $126,200.

Fear & Greed Index: about 37 (Fear), up from about 30 a week earlier. Sources differ slightly (readings of 30–37), but all sit in fear territory.

Top 5 stories

1. Binance hit by a record $6.3B hack About $6.3B was drained from Binance’s hot wallets on 29 October. The FBI says North Korea’s TraderTraitor group was responsible and is converting funds into Ethereum. Binance says it has replenished about 95% of the affected assets, is buying the rest, and that losses will not be passed on to users. Withdrawals reopened in phases from 1 November, with about $3.6B in net outflows in the first hours (another outlet reports about $4.7B net overall). Binance says a Proof of Reserves report and a detailed incident report are coming. (Last week’s edition covered why this matters: not your keys, not your crypto.)

2. Spot Bitcoin ETFs see their biggest outflow since June US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.3M on 30 October, the largest daily outflow since 25 June, and $202.6M for the week. Ethereum ETFs lost $155.9M on the day and $431.5M for the week. That’s under 1% of total Bitcoin ETF assets (about $98B), and analysts describe it as de-risking, not a loss of institutional confidence.

3. The Fed holds, but a December hike is in play On 28 October the Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote. Both dissenters wanted another hike. Chair Kevin Warsh didn’t commit to December, but markets now price about an 85% chance of a hike then. Higher rates tend to weigh on risk assets, including crypto.

4. Tech sell-off drags risk assets The Nasdaq fell 2.86% on Friday, its steepest drop since June, on weak Intel and Amazon earnings and worries about AI spending. It’s now about 7.8% below its October record. Crypto has been trading in step with tech.

5. Big holders kept buying

Strategy bought 811 BTC (about $65.5M), taking its total to 849,327 BTC. Strive added 124 BTC at about $80,526 average. BitMine added 8,573 ETH, taking its treasury to 6.06M ETH (about 4.9% of supply).

Also noted: About 50 major US companies, including Microsoft, Nvidia, JPMorgan and Alphabet, objected to their shares being listed on a planned OKX–ICE tokenized stock platform. Italy proposed a 33% exit tax on crypto holders leaving the country. Stripe and OnePay launched stablecoin deposits.

Movers (last 24 hours, 2 November)

A verified weekly top-10 wasn’t available, so here are the 24-hour movers I could confirm:

LIT +12% on plans for CFTC derivatives licence applications G (Gravity) +10% after its mainnet migration (another feed shows it down, so treat as unclear) NEAR +8.5% ahead of a vote to cut token issuance from 2.5% to 1.6% Majors: ETH +1%, BTC +0.8%, SOL -1%, BNB -0.6%

Small-cap spikes like the +50% moves tied to meme or game rumours are the kind of thing the “90% is junk” edition warned about.

Where we are in the cycle

Opinions are mixed. Some analysts see an early recovery after the drawdown from last October’s high. Others see the current drop as a retest. The honest read is that Bitcoin is range-bound, sentiment is fearful, and rate and liquidity worries are the main swing factor.

Levels traders are watching:

Bitcoin support: $76,000–77,000 (the October low), then $74,500–75,000 Bitcoin resistance: $79,000–80,000, then $80,300–80,900 and $82,000 Ethereum support: $2,200, then $2,100; resistance $2,300–2,330 and $2,390–2,400 What to watch this week US midterm elections (3 Nov): could affect the outlook for crypto legislation. Binance: the Proof of Reserves report, the full incident report, and whether outflows slow. ETF flows: do outflows continue or reverse? Fed: inflation and jobs data that shape the December decision. Check the CPI release date. Hack follow-ups: how much stolen value is frozen or recovered. What a sensible investor does now Don’t leave long-term holdings on any exchange. Size positions so a 30–40% drop wouldn’t hurt you. Expect scam messages (“Binance compensation”, fake support) and ignore them. Don’t let a fear reading push you into rash decisions in either direction.

Chat to the Orange Brick Road team: https://calendly.com/brandon-orangebrickroad/15min-call

General information only. Not financial, investment or tax advice, and it doesn’t consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. Orange Brick Road does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL). Crypto is highly volatile and you can lose all your money. Do your own research and speak to a licensed adviser before making decisions.

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